Arctic Basecamp briefing urges leaders to put climate science at the centre of security, economic and geopolitical decision-making
Greenland is no longer a distant Arctic concern but a front-stage global risk with profound implications for business, policy and international security, leading scientists and geopolitical experts warned today at a briefing held at Arctic Basecamp during the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting.
Speaking at the session Greenland at Risk: Science, Security and Global Risk, experts cautioned that accelerating ice loss, rising geopolitical tensions and possible pressure on scientific access threaten not only coastal economies and global supply chains, but the world’s ability to understand and manage climate risk itself
“Greenland, for many people in Davos, used to seem very far away. […] It is now really a front-stage conversation around global risk,” said Professor Gail Whiteman, Founder of Arctic Basecamp and Hoffmann Impact Professor, University of Exeter. “What our session wants to do is to set the stage and reset the conversation, to bring in science-led decision-making into what is becoming a very hot geopolitical issue.”
Professor Alun Hubbard, Glaciologist and Geophysicist; Director, Thule Institute; UArctic Chair told the audience that Greenland’s ice sheet, which contains enough frozen water to raise global sea levels by more than seven metres, has shifted from long-term stability into sustained loss over the past three decades.
“Greenland is now contributing about a millimetre per year to global sea-level rise,” Hubbard said. “Given the last 20 years of mean climate, the ice sheet is already committed to a volume loss […] equivalent to 27 centimetres of global sea level rise.”
This translates into real risk for coastal cities, infrastructure, insurance markets and global stability.
He stressed that the trajectory is not inevitable, but time is critical.
“If we can bring ourselves into a carbon-neutral economies and reach our net zero goals in the next 10 or 20 years, it’s not as bad as we think. I don’t believe we’ve hit a tipping point beyond which we can’t recover. It’s still going to get worse before it gets better.’’
Addressing growing political and commercial interest in Greenland’s mineral resources, Professor Martin Siegert, Glaciologist and Polar Scientist; Vice-President and Deputy Vice- at the University of Exeter, warned against assumptions of rapid extraction. Greenland lacks infrastructure, workforce and logistics at scale.
“Mining is really difficult […] it is a long complex process that needs all sorts of infrastructure and equipment and knowledge and it takes decades […]to set things up. You can’t just switch it on and do it.” Siegert said. “The idea that extraction could be activated within any reasonable time, probably our lifetimes is highly unlikely...”
He added that the future of mineral security lies as much in circular economy models, recycling and sustainable extraction as in new frontiers.
In a video contribution, geopolitical expert Professor Klaus Dodds from Middlesex University London, warned that rising rhetoric around Greenland risks inflaming tensions while ignoring the people who live there and the science the world depends on.
“What’s been missing are the views, the interests, the wishes of the 57,000 people who call Greenland home, and a wider recognition and a deep respect for the territorial integrity of the Kingdom of Denmark,” Dodds said. “What we desperately need to do is reduce the geopolitical temperature and make sure we go back to what we should be focussing on which is: Greenland’s vital role in the monitoring and understanding of global environmental change, an utmost respect for the people of Greenland and their autonomy.”
Speakers repeatedly emphasised that open scientific access to Greenland has underpinned decades of climate knowledge, from ice-core records to satellite monitoring, and that any disruption would undermine global risk management.
“If you have an issue with your cholesterol and you think you might be leading towards a heart attack, you don’t stop measuring you have to keep that measurement up and have interventions, whichever they may be, like reduction in CO2 emissions.” Whiteman said.
The same logic applies to climate risk and Greenland.
As Arctic Basecamp marks its tenth year at Davos, the briefing concluded with a clear message to decision-makers across government, finance and industry: geopolitical instability, climate change and economic risk are converging — and science is the common denominator.
National security, economic resilience and long-term value creation all depend on a stable climate system, ignoring the science does not reduce risk, it magnifies it.
Whiteman closed by saying, “At Arctic Basecamp, we try to speak science to power. And the real question with Greenland is, will current power dynamics listen to what science is saying?”
Helen Clay
helen@arcticbasecamp.org
+44 7837 913280
helen@arcticbasecamp.org
+44 7837 913280
About Arctic Basecamp
Arctic Basecamp Foundation is a non-profit science communication organization. Its focus is on communicating the global climate risks from polar change. On a mission to “speak science to power", the foundation aims to expand the global reach of its advocacy and research on how polar change is amplifying global climate risks. Arctic Basecamp has a presence at many world-reaching events every year. Their flagship event alongside the World Economic Forum’s Annual Meeting at Davos has been happening since 2017, at which Arctic Basecamp scientists and collaborators set up a real Arctic science tent, where they both camp and host impactful events on the repercussions of climate change. arcticbasecamp.org / globalclimaterisks.org
